Climate alarmism
Guest Post by Erik Bye (Oslo, Norway) and Ian McNaughton (Sydney, Australia)
1. Introduction
During the past weeks/months, the website Climate Cosmos1 has flooded media news outlets such as MSN with strong statements about Global Warming and what they identify as its cause: emissions of carbon dioxide by human activities. The website appears to have a wide audience and seriously derides anyone claiming that humans are not causing the global temperatures to rise.
Amazingly, in stark contrast to those many articles, Climate Cosmos recently published an article that advised caution in promoting the above concept and that the predictions offered by climate scientists might be incorrect!
The purpose of this article is to provide a simple summary of the current state of Climate Alarmism as perceived by the authors.
2. Weaponizing Science
There has been a trend during the past couple of decades for politicians to weaponize some areas of science for their own political gains. A prime example was the recent exploitation of the Corona Virus to impose draconian laws upon an unsuspecting and gullible public. Another example that has been in operation for years is the weaponization of climate to introduce rules and regulations that have almost crippled the economies of western countries but have, not surprisingly, left other countries untouched and free to do as they like.
This unfortunate situation is described in more detail in an article written by Richard Lindzen, professor emeritus of meteorology at MIT 1,2.
3. USA – Public Opinion about Global Warming
A recent article3 described how a “large majority of Americans who have experienced extreme weather conditions” support warnings about “Climate Change” and are strongly behind prioritizing alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power. This situation is the result of many years of brainwashing by pseudo-science. To convince those people that they have been misled for years by politicians and scientists with their (not so hidden) agendas based on the considerable funding they receive to continue their climate warnings, requires patience and ongoing work by those of us who know the warnings are nothing short of a gigantic hoax.
4. Politics of Global Warming
A book by Mike Hulme4 describes the social and political handling of the Climate Issue and how it has presented opinions, beliefs, or principles as undeniable truths, often without considering alternative perspectives or evidence. Furthermore, these views have been imposed on others in a rigid or authoritarian manner, shutting down debate or discussion.
5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
In an encouraging development, the new IPCC leader, Jim Skea, started his work by asking for more moderation in discussions about climate change5.
Skea warned against placing too much value on the international community's current nominal target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era.
"We should not despair and fall into a state of shock if global temperatures were to increase by this amount”, he said.
"If you constantly communicate the message that we are all doomed to extinction, then that paralyses people and prevents them from taking the necessary steps to get a grip on climate change," he said.
6. Climate Change Issues
It is not difficult to identify some of the climate issues being used in extreme arguments. There are at least four which are uppermost in debates about climate change:
a) The Nobel Fraud
Failure of the climate models used by IPCC and based on The Nobel Prize in physics for 2021 given to Syunora Manabe is an important issue that Climate Alarmists prefer to ignore. Opponents to the climate scare claim that IPCC’s modelling of climate has failed significantly. Not surprisingly, climate researchers have denied this accusation, with harsh, negative comments directed at those producing scientific evidence that clearly show errors in the modelling.
b) IPCC Claims
The IPCC claims that changes to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere6 drive temperature changes. However, for more than a decade, it has been known that changes in global temperature precede changes to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. IPCC-proponents have denied this time lag, ignoring the scientific evidence. Their message has been the opposite; they have continued to claim that changes in concentration of CO2 is the force driving increases in global temperature.
c) Climate Modelling
A problem seen by some in the construction and use of Climate Models lies in the parameters used to represent the influence of each of the many factors that affect climate. Small errors in these parameters could cause massive differences in the predictions. Such errors won’t necessarily be detected until recorded (raw) temperatures are compared against predictions, and it might take several years before being able to confirm that errors do exist.
Further errors can be introduced into modelling if the temperature data used is not raw data but is data that has been adjusted by climate scientists using techniques such as “homogenisation”7. These “adjustments” might modify the data to reflect the theories of some climate scientists rather than following the honest, scientific approach whereby models are created to reflect what is happening in the real world.
d) Climate Targets are Political Issues
A suggestion to limit the increase in global temperatures to 2.0 °C by 2100 was made by politicians during the COP15-meeting in Copenhagen in 2009.
That target was a random choice, without any scientific basis.
Casting a shadow over that pronouncement, the IPCC also stated that as long as the climate could not be modelled, no prediction for the future could be made. Despite that pronouncement, the “2.0 °C by 2100” was established as dogma. During discussions at the Paris agreement (2016) the target was reduced to 1.5 °C, and vigorous debate continues. Future discussions of this issue will (hopefully) take advantage of the present emphasis on a more cautious approach by alarmists.
7. Discussion
A common strategy used by alarmists to propagate their theory about the cause of global warming and their claim that if nothing is done to stop it, the world will experience a global catastrophe by the year 2100, is to start their arguments with the following basic claims:
global temperatures are rising at an ever-increasing rate, more than previously experienced.
the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the main cause of those increasing global temperatures.
97% of scientists agree with the premise that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted by humans were the cause of increasing global temperatures.
There is general agreement by all that global temperatures are rising.
There is also general agreement that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at an ever-increasing rate of change and there is ample evidence that prove this is true.
The only real points of contention are claims by some Climate Scientists that: (a) global temperatures are rising at an accelerating rate of change, and (b) the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the cause of that acceleration.
Research by scientists in the field of molecular structures has shown clearly that the carbon dioxide molecule could not possibly be responsible for more than a trivial amount of atmospheric warming8.
Interestingly, a very recent article (April 2025) published by Climate Cosmos strongly implied that the 97% mentioned above, was unrealistic, indicating again that the managers of this website were beginning to cast doubts on some of the claims of Climate Alarmists.
Moreover, analysis of 19 sets of temperature data from Australian cities and towns and some global cities9 has shown that the rate of temperature increase now, and for the past couple of centuries, is a steady ~0.018 °C per year, which is within the boundaries of the temperature increases of between 0.012 and 0.025 °C per year measured from a number of glacial cycles that have occurred during the past many millions of years.
8. Conclusion
The almost religious passion shown by those who truly believe that humans are the main cause of climate change is unlikely to diminish over time. They continually ignore clear evidence disputing their belief and it is likely their belief will remain undiminished for many years. During that time span, global temperatures are likely to continue to rise at the steady rate of ~0.018 °C per year and at that rate, by the year 2100, seventy-five years from now, global temperatures will have risen by 1.35 °C.
1.35 °C is below the 1.5 °C limit set by COP members with no scientific basis which should make them happy. However, if politicians continue to believe the alarmists and continue to take mitigating actions which they believe will stop global temperatures from rising, then the economies of many western countries will be crippled.
There is nothing humanity can do to stop global temperatures from rising.
There is nothing that humanity should do to stop global temperatures from rising.
The continuing rise in global temperature is not a threat to humanity.
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A good guest post.
Climate alarmism is to be seen either as a new religion where the martyrs earn money or, for what it is, the furtherance of the plan to rule everybody - which will fail.
An excellent article summarizing the current situation. It is clear that the influence of the alarmists is beginning to wane. The myth seems to be crumbling slowly but surely.